Monday, May 27, 2019

SHOULD YOU TRY TO TIME THE MARKET?


One thing we are all guilty of is asking our coworkers, how much money they have in their TSP and then mentally comparing that with what we have in our own. Our next question may even be asking, is how much time do you have until you retire? Then after words we may be deciding if we need to change or allocation or start watching the market so if the market starts to go down we can move our money from one fund to another. But is this really necessary? Do you really need to time the market in order to insure you will have a decent amount of money in your TSP? Well I’m here to tell you that may not be necessary.

If you have followed some of my suggestions from my other posts then you may be setting things up for your house to be paid off by the time you retire, you are most likely doing a budget so you can track how much you spend per month and over a year, plus you should be at the point where you are paying cash for your cars so that you no longer have car payments. So if you are doing these things, let me show you that if you have 10 years or more left until retirement don’t worry about it. You will still have more than enough money to live on by the time you retire.

Let’s say you make $50,000 a year and never get a raise for easy accounting purposes. You are only contributing the minimum of 5% ($2,500) to your TSP for 10 years. Now remember the government matches you at 5% so the total amount that is being contributed to your TSP is $5,000 a year.

Yearly contribution $5,000
10 years
20 years
25 years
Total Principle
$50,000
$100,0000
$125,000
Interest 6%
$18,624.48
$93,479.62
$165,191.22
Total
$68,624.48
$193,479.62
$290,191.22
Interest 8%
$26,735.70
$147,061.33
$273,902.71
Total
$76,735.70
$247,061.33
$398,902.71

Now looking at the chart above if you only average 6% on your money, after 10 years you will have $68,624.48. But no need to panic at the 2o year mark you will have almost $200,000!! Woo hoo. Do to the magic of compound interest your money will more than double in those last 10 more years and in 5 more years  there will be a gain of nearly $100,000 more.

If you don’t know anything about investing and worried you will not have enough money rest assured that even if you only ever invest the minimum in your TSP, you could still end up with $200,000 at an average of 6% interest over 20 years. You could average that and maybe more by just picking one of the L-Funds closest to the date you plan to retire. So my point is, that just “set it and forget it” can work just fine without trying to time the market. As long as your money doesn’t all stay in the G-Fund your entire career.

Side note the government match is actually,
  • 1% agency automatic contribution paid whether or not you are contributing to the TSP.
  • A dollar-for-dollar match on the first 3% of your salary that you contribute each pay period.
  • A fifty-cent on the dollar match for the next 2% of your salary that you contribute each pay period.
Ms. Smart

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